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Our ranked predictions for this year's Oscar nominees

Posted Thursday, January 12, 2006 at 11:35 AM Central

by Tim Briscoe

The nominees for this year's Oscars won't be announced until the early morning hours of Jan. 31. Heck, nominations aren't even due from members until Jan. 21. The leading barometer for Oscar success, the Golden Globes, won't be awarded until next Monday, Jan. 16.

Yeah, the time seems about right for us to make our Oscar predictions.

Just as we did last year in two separate articles (found here and here), we're going to forecast this year's nominees. Only this year, we're going to make it a collective effort -- and we're going to rank their chances.

Something things to keep in mind: These aren't our choices. We haven't even seen Brokeback Mountain and Munich. These are the films we think the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will select. Also, we're not picking any winners. Our number ones just have the best shot of being nominated (so we think) but not necessarily winning the trophy.

Without further delay, here are our predictions in each of the top six categories. The Academy will most likely select five nominees in each category, but isn't required.

Best Picture

  1. Brokeback Mountain
  2. Munich
  3. Walk the Line
  4. Good Night, and Good Luck
  5. The Constant Gardener
  6. Crash
  7. A History of Violence
  8. Capote
  9. Cinderella Man
  10. King Kong

Best Director

  1. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
  2. Steven Spielberg, Munich
  3. Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener
  4. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
  5. Peter Jackson, King Kong
  6. David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
  7. James Mangold, Walk the Line
  8. Paul Haggis, Crash
  9. Bennett Miller, Capote
  10. Ron Howard, Cinderella Man

Best Actor

  1. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
  2. Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
  3. Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
  4. Eric Bana, Munich
  5. David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
  6. Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
  7. Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
  8. Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener
  9. Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
  10. Viggo Mortensen, A History of Violence

Best Actress

  1. Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
  2. Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
  3. Charlize Theron, North Country
  4. Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
  5. Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
  6. Renee Zellweger, Cinderella Man
  7. Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
  8. Zhang Ziyi, Memoirs of a Geisha
  9. Naomi Watts, King Kong
  10. Claire Danes, Shopgirl

Best Supporting Actor

  1. George Clooney, Syriana
  2. Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents
  3. Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
  4. Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
  5. William Hurt, A History of Violence
  6. Matt Dillon, Crash
  7. Michael Lonsdale, Munich
  8. Don Cheadle, Crash
  9. Ed Harris, A History of Violence
  10. Norman Lloyd, In Her Shoes

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
  2. Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
  3. Maria Bello, A History of Violence
  4. Catherine Keener, Capote
  5. Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
  6. Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
  7. Shirley MacLaine, In Her Shoes
  8. Amy Adams, Junebug
  9. Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale
  10. Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha

That's it. We'll check back in early February to see how many of the nominees we got right. We won't be surprised if there are a couple of from-out-of-no-where nominees.

The 78th Academy Awards will be presented Mar. 5 and televised on ABC. Don't worry, we'll make our winner predictions some time before that date.